San Ramon Earthquake Forecast
Last Event: 2026-02-15 17:32:29 PST |
Generated: 2026-02-16 21:56:34 PST |
Elapsed: 28.40h
Immediate Risk (Next 24h): LOW (2.0%)
Seismic activity frequency is within normal limits.
Short-Term Trend (24h - 48h)
Forecasts below 24h are suppressed due to high model variance (MAE > 100h). Use Swarm Risk for immediate alerts.
| Threshold | 24h | 48h |
|---|---|---|
| Mag ≥ 2 | 7.0% | 14.0% |
| Mag ≥ 3 | 0.0% | 1.0% |
| Mag ≥ 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mag ≥ 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Long-Term Probabilities
| Threshold | 4 Days | 7 Days | 14 Days | 30 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mag ≥ 2 | 26.0% | 44.0% | 65.0% | 76.0% |
| Mag ≥ 3 | 3.0% | 7.0% | 14.0% | 16.0% |
| Mag ≥ 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mag ≥ 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Visualizations
Reference Maps & History
Model Validation Report
Methodology: Models trained on first 80% of history, tested on last 20%.
Test Period: 2017-10-06 to 2026-02-16
1. Swarm Classification Performance
| Metric | Score |
|---|---|
| Accuracy | 87.7% |
| F1-Score (Swarm Class) | 0.78 |
2. Time-to-Event Regression Error (MAE)
MAE measures the average error in hours. Lower is better.
Note: "Swarm MAE" is naturally lower because events happen frequently (minutes apart).
| Target | Global MAE | Swarm Only MAE | Quiet MAE | Swarm Count / Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mag ≥ 2 | 128.2 h | 58.3h | 169.4h | 700 / 1889 |
| Mag ≥ 3 | 157.4 h | 127.0h | 196.1h | 491 / 877 |
| Mag ≥ 4 | 158.2 h | 109.8h | 214.1h | 74 / 138 |
